## ✅ Post-Match Audit: Bologna 2-0 Lecce 📋 **Pre-Match Read:** Our montecarlo_v1.0 model favored Bologna at home with a 48.5% win probability, pointing to a tight, low-scoring match. The most likely score was flagged as 1-0, and the Under 2.5 Goals line looked reasonable given an expected total of 2.6 goals. ⚽ **What Actually Happened:** Bologna won 2-0, confirming the home victory but producing one more goal than our most probable scoreline suggested. ✅ **Right:** Winner — Bologna took all three points, aligning with our highest-probability outcome. Total goals — the match finished with 2 goals, landing under 2.5, which the model's low expected total (2.6) broadly reflected. ❌ **Wrong:** Score prediction missed. We flagged 1-0 as the most likely scoreline; the actual result was 2-0. Notably, the pre-match report framed Under 2.5 as the stronger angle while Over 2.5 carried 47.0% — yet we logged that as "correct" simply because 2 goals is under 2.5. The model's direction was right, but for imprecise reasoning. 📊 **Accuracy Log:** 1/2 core predictions fully correct (winner ✅, score ❌). Under 2.5 outcome aligned, though the expected goals figure of 2.6 slightly overestimated attacking output. No live signals were active during the match. 💬 Was Bologna's clean sheet the result of defensive solidity, or did Lecce simply lack the firepower to threaten? Drop your thoughts below 👇 🔍 [View full prediction data on OddsFlow](#) 🔍 [View Full Prediction](/en/predictions/2026-04-13/bologna-vs-lecce-1378175) | [Verified Track Record](/en/performance/verification-proof) --- *Post-match verification by OddsFlow — transparent, accountable, evidence-first*